My guest this week is Ryan Caldbeck, a private equity investor who wants to bring quantitative rigor to the private markets. Ryan is the CEO of Circle Up, which uses a system it calls Helio to identify attractive investments in early stage consumer brands.
While I am of course a fan of quantitative investing, I also know from experience how much harder private markets are than public markets when it comes to the transactions themselves. We discuss this and many other potential roadblocks to bringing models to private markets.
Using many individual companies as examples, Ryan explains some of the major predictive factors they’ve uncovered in their research. We also discuss which parts of the private markets might be infiltrated by quant processes first, and which may never be.
I expect many more to go on a journey similar to Ryan’s in the years to come. They serve as an interesting example for ambitious investors out there.
Please enjoy our conversation.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
1:39 - (First Question) – Formation of Helio
6:57 – How they handle the relationship building needed to make investments in private markets
10:26 – Why consumer and retail are interesting spaces to apply their quantitative approach in private markets
12:54 – Searching for new relevant data
16:14 – How do they stay ahead of the commoditization of uniqueness
16:21 – Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning
17:24 – Sam Hinkie Podcast Episode
18:00 – Dominant predictive factors in this world
21:05 – Which is more important, relative value or rate of change
21:48 – What does the data say about online sales vs offline (being in a store)
23:30 – Variable that consumer investors think matters but it doesn’t
24:53 – Valuing companies and accounting for mispricing’s
25:36 – Michael Recce Podcast Episode
26:41 – Goes through the process using Liquid Ivy as an example
28:46 – Most interesting sub-categories
29:33 – Future for this model
32:10 – Albert Wenger Podcast Episode
35:19 – Other categories outside consumer and retail interest Ryan
36:28 – Biggest challenges for CircleUp as a business
38:46 – Handicapping their earnings expectations
41:36 – Take on the VC/PE landscape
43:03 – The types of models that are most interesting to the team
45:05 – Quantitative elements of brand that are most interesting
47:30 – Most unique brand and distribution strategy he’s come across
53:27 – Who has influenced Ryan the most
54:37 – His personal values
55:51 – More people who had an influence on Ryan
56:05 – The Innovator's Dilemma: The Revolutionary Book That Will Change the Way You Do Business
57:07 – Thoughts on goal setting at the company
59:29 – Unchangeable factors that shape their long-term vision
1:02:01 – Most interesting individual conversation as part of this journey
1:04:02 – If he could only keep one dataset, what would he keep
1:05:09 – kindest thing anyone has done for Ryan
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
My guest this week aspires to be the Larry David of investing, and we discuss why. Howard Lindzon is hard to categorize. He’s primarily an early stage investor right now, but he’s participated in all types of investing. He describes himself as a trend follower and always has a unique take on popular topics.
In this conversation, we cover his investing history and his take on the fintech investing landscape. What I’ll remember most is the idea that we should focus on what is happening versus what we think will happen or might happen. There is a Peter Lynch like quality to some of Howard’s thinking, and a willingness to embrace the weird that I find very appealing. The few times I’ve met Howard, I’ve smiled or laughed most of the time, which is about as nice a thing as I could say about someone.
He’s a good example of why I like this podcast format. His investing style bears literally no resemblance to my own, but it got me thinking about a lot of new things. I hope you enjoy our chat.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
1:42 - (First Question) – Why he wants to be the Larry David of investing
2:00 – Why his investing style is best described as trend following
4:05 – The biggest inspirations/influencers on Howard’s investing
6:39 – What made his second mentor, Fred Wilson such a great investor
9:52 – Formation of Wall Strip
12:33 – Why weird is so important in his investment philosophy
14:56 – Understanding his investment philosophy through his investment in Rally Road.
21:02 – His assessment of the fintech space
28:54 – Why fintech pushes away from human nature
30:50 – Major trends in fintech that have his attention
35:02 – What stands out about the teams at these companies he invests in
36:37 – Thoughts on fractionalization plays
36:44 – Capital Allocators podcast episode
36:54 – Venture Stories Podcast
40:03 – Any major trends that are changing and worth attention
42:06 – The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference
43:26 – His take on the media landscape
45:10 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
My guests this week are Ali Hamed, Brian Harwitt and Marc Porzecanski who work together at CoVenture Credit. When I first had Ali on as a podcast guest, we discussed the many aspects of what his firm does, ranging from venture, to crypto, to credit. We glossed over the lending side of the business, but having since learned a lot from them on the topic, I was excited to get the chance to talk with members of their credit team for today’s longer exploration of esoteric high yield lending.
I am always proselytizing the value of investor education, s this week we have a podcast first. The CoVenture team has prepared a long series of posts that correspond to our conversation and go even deeper into the topic of credit investing. You can find them in the shownotes at investorfieldguide.com/credit
This is entirely differently from any conversation I’ve shared before, so I hope you learn as much as I did. Please enjoy my discussion with team CoVenture Credit.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
1:42 - (First Question) – The formation of their unique credit business
7:09 – Their advantage in seeing both the equity and credit side of their investments
10:23 – Looking at the Returnly deal as an example
14:07 – How they view these deals and are able to sustain them as long-term investments
18:09 – Their interest in payroll deduction lending
20:08 – Finding unique types of default risk
21:31 – What stands out in a platform that makes CoVenture want to take a deeper look
26:43 – Most interesting types of problem they have come across that they have yet to do a deal in
31:35 – What is going to change to make for more thoughtful underwriting of subprime lending
35:51 – Major structures of asset backed lending
39:49 – Whether the home serves as an interesting playground for credit opportunities and whether people will own anything again
42:44 – Mark’s experience working at a huge firm vs his experience at CoVenture
44:31 – How does the current credit cycle impact their view
47:04 – Lending against bitcoin
50:06 – Who is interested in these loans against bitcoin
50:57 – How to set interest rates against a weird asset like this
53:00 – What are the key determents of success in this business
1:02:27 – Kindest thing anyone has team for the team
1:03:52 – How to treat people that you pass on
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
My guest this week is Saifedean Ammous, author of the book the Bitcoin Standard. This was one of the more interesting conversations I’ve had in the world of cryptocurrency, primarily because we don’t talk about Bitcoin or Crypto until 25 minutes into the talk. Instead, we focus on history, economics, sound money, low time preference, and gold—all interesting topics.
Saif’s thinking on cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin—which is that they are worthless—is unique and thought provoking. His reasoning around why gold shouldn’t be compared to the returns generated by assets like equities was also compelling. If you’ve followed my Hash Power episodes, this is a new a differentiated interpretation of Bitcoin as a technology for the store of value use case. Please enjoy our conversation.
Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
2:10 - (First Question) – Explain Sound Money
4:25 – Examples of hard vs easy money
7:36 – the even money trap
9:36 – The benefits of hard money vs today’s standards
14:05 – Why this interests him
14:16 – Gold Wars: The Battle Against Sound Money As Seen From A Swiss Perspective
14:56 – Democracy – The God That Failed: The Economics and Politics of Monarchy, Democracy and Natural Order
16:17 – Correlation between time preference and people’s ability to succeed in life
19:59 – How money markets worked in the late 18th century vs today
27:57 – How he came across Bitcoin and how he thinks of it as a digital gold
35:42 – How will the world transition to a sound money standard
42:15 – The impacts of hyperinflation on crypto currencies
45:04 – The idea of a orderly upgrade of the world currency
48:20 – His thinking on alternative coins
54:05 – What it takes to compete with bitcoin
1:01:43 – How he diversifies
1:04:35 – Stalling bitcoins demand
1:06:11 – Does he apply his thinking of lower time preference elsewhere in his life
1:07:09 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag