This week I have a very special guest years in the making. Like another favorite episode, with anonymous guest Modest Proposal, this conversation is with one of the stars of the financial twitter universe who writes anonymously and goes by the pseudonym Jesse Livermore. I met Jesse 6 years ago after reading his unbelievably unique investing research, which tackled all the big and interesting issues in markets. He now also works with me as a research partner at OSAM, where’s he’s used our data to continue to his search for truth in markets. Despite being one of the brightest minds I’ve encountered he is also as humble and unassuming as they come. I’m at least a slightly better person because of trying to emulate how he conducts himself. I get to have many conversations with him that go from 0-100 fast, and I’m thrilled to be able to share one of those with you.
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Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
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Show Notes
1:33 - (First Question) – Jesse’s origin story for investing
4:37 – Exploring his ways of problem solving starting with intuitive
7:53 – David Epstein Podcast Episode
11:46 – Looking at the analytical way of problem solving
15:42 – Statistical inference
24:45 – Should we opt for simplicity in the investment process
25:26 – Does his own investing include all three, intuition, analysis, and statistics
26:09 – The evolution of his research, process, and thinking on various investment factors.
31:38 – Thoughts on inflation and its impact on market valuation
40:05 – The Earnings Mirage
46:25 – Free Cash flow and valuations
50:51 – What should investors take away from this research
53:01 – Thoughts on trend as an interesting market signal
59:00 – The problems with trend
1:00:34 – Post on “The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns”
1:11:15 – His work into understanding factors
1:15:36 – Looking at momentum
1:18:16 – His curiosity into the current market cycle
1:20:04 – Lessons learned from his time in the military, an effective way to create an environment where people can safely disagree with their co-workers
1:30:10 – The concept of progress in meaningful work
1:33:08 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
My guest today is Chuck Akre, a now widely famous investor who founded Akre Capital Management in 1989, which now manages approximately $10B dollars. We discuss his investing style and his “three-legged stool” for evaluating companies. Please enjoy this great conversation.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
1:06 - (First Question) – Advantage of being in Middleburg, Virginia
2:11 – What a day looks like for Chuck
3:06 – Why imagination is more important than knowledge
3:38 – Difference between curiosity and imagination
4:38 – The origins of the Nirvana Three-Legged Stool concept
10:14 – First leg of the stool, Extraordinary business and ROE’s with a focus on Bandag.
14:36 – How his evaluations of value has changed over the last 10-15 years
16:10 – A look at recent businesses that he’s bought and why they are interesting
19:56 – Why they keep things simple
21:35 – Second leg of the stool, the people involved and characteristics of managers he has invested in
23:20 – Role of capital allocation in the people he focuses on
28:03 – Favorite biographies
29:34 – Third leg of the stool, reinvestment
21:09 – How does he think about diversifying across an investment area
33:32 – Great businesses wrapped in a bad balance sheet
37:35 – What would cause him to sell
38:52 – What does he look for in people
43:27 – How curiosity has impacted his interest in land conservation
43:51 – Advice for investors, especially younger ones
46:14 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
My guest this week is Jerry Neumann. Jerry is one of the most thoughtful early stage investors that I’ve encountered, and his writings at reactionwheel.net are my favorite on this topic. He applies an incredibly structured way of thinking to a notoriously mysterious investment category. This is our second conversation, in which we cover why investing with one’s gut is a bad idea and why some of the popular edges in startups, like network effects, may be picked over. Please enjoy our conversation.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
1:17 - (First Question) – His take on the venture landscape and the type of investments new VC’s are making vs what they should be making
3:44 – Most important implications of excess VC firms
5:32 – Misalignment of incentives in the VC space
8:19 – What he does differently from angel investors or VC’s
10:11 – The notion of risk and the types of risk the people he invests in takes
14:33 – Protections that he thinks about when it comes to the ideas he invests in
19:37 – Is there an area of expertise that provides an edge for startups
20:11 – Network effects are picked over
21:35 – IP protection
23:08 – One of the two most interesting things for VC’s to go after, brands
25:13 – The other most important thing, the value chain
27:42 – A current example of a disruptive value chain
29:14 – Innovation as the source of profit
29:16 – Schumpeter on Strategy
31:50 – Efficiency innovation vs value innovation
31:52 – Energy and Civilization: A History
35:50 – Efficiency investments he’s made
37:13 – Investment in Unsupervised and the machine learning landscape
41:25 – Investment in Sila
43:14 – Investment in Edmit
44:44 – investing on gut
50:32 – Black boxes and their value in investments
53:23 – Metrics about the predictive level of whether people are going to succeed
54:45 – What defines good people worth backing
57:50 – Advice for LP investors in this space and how they should evaluate VC’s in this space
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
I came across this week’s guest thanks to the overlap of three passions of mine: data informed investing, value creation, and basketball.
Sam Hinkie worked for more than a decade in the NBA with the Houston Rockets, and then most recently as the President and GM of the Philadelphia 76ers. He helped launch basketball's analytics movement when he joined the Houston Rockets in 2005, and is known for unique trade structuring and a keen focus on acquiring undervalued players. Today, he is also an investor and advisor to a limited number of young companies in which he feels his experience can improve outcomes.
At one point in our conversation, Sam mentions that he tracked success via future financial outcomes, so I did some research and found many interesting stats about the 76ers surrounding Sam’s tenure. When he took over the franchise, it was 24th in ESPN’s franchise rankings, and today it is 4th. This is the result of an impressive crop of young talent—players like All-Star Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons—which resulted in large part from unconventional decisions Sam and his team made.
While I’m sure these estimates are imperfect, Forbes estimated the 76ers value at around $418M when Sam took over and $1.2B a few months ago. NBA teams in general have grown in value, so a lot of that appreciation is obviously “beta,” but given that the 76ers had the top percentage growth number more recently of any team, some of it is “alpha,” too. While we can’t parse the exact amount, it seems his unique approach to building a team clearly created some large amount of current franchise equity value. And it looks like the dividends from those decisions will compound for many years to come.
While basketball was where Sam plied his talents in the past, his approach is more elemental. It is about finding great people, using data, and structuring decisions that create the possibility of huge returns, be they financial or otherwise. I don’t know what Sam will do next, be it investing in companies, running one, or taking over another team, but I know it will be fun to watch.
Please enjoy this unique episode with Sam Hinkie.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Books Referenced
Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids: Why Being a Great Parent is Less Work and More Fun Than You Think
Links Referenced
Show Notes
3:24 – (First Question) Advantages of having a long view and how to structurally harness one
6:08 – Using technology to foster an innovative culture
10:16 – Favorite example of applied innovation from Sam’s career
11:34 - Most fun aspect of doing data analytics early on the Houston Rockets
13:38 - Is there anything more important than courage in asymmetric outcomes
14:29 – How does Sam know when to let the art of decision making finish where the data started
16:29 - Pros and cons of a contrarian mindset
17:26 – Where he wanted to apply his knowledge in sports when first getting out of school and how his thinking is best applied in the current sports landscape
21:39 – How does he think about trying to find the equivalent of mispriced assets in the NBA
23:12 – Where tradition can be an impediment to innovation
25:07 – What did the team and workflow of the team look like in the front office
27:03 - The measure of truth in a sports complex
29:10 – What were the early factors coming out of the data that helped to shape NBA teams
30:42 – Best tactics for hiring
33:59 – Process of recruiting spectacular people
35:39 – Thoughts on fostering a good marriage
37:57 – Picking your kids traits in your spouse
38:02 – Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids: Why Being a Great Parent is Less Work and More Fun Than You Think
40:45 – What kind of markers does he look for when evaluating long term investment ideas
42:44 – His interest in machine learning
45:55 – What’s more exciting, the actual advances in machine learning or the applications that can be imagined as a result
47:15– International Justice Mission
48:11 – How he got started teaching negotiations and some of the points he makes in that class
49:16 – Effective techniques for negotiating
50:03 – Is negotiating contentious, do you need empathy
50:41 – A Rorschach test of Sam based on his reading of Lessons of History (book)
53:01 – Biggest risk Sam took in his career
54:37 – Biggest risks Sam took while with the 76ers
58:09 – Do people undervalue asymmetric outcomes in the NBA
1:00:11 – The players Sam has enjoyed watching over the years
1:02:45 – Why Robert Caro is a favorite author of his
1:04:30 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Sam
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag